Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NIA +115 IONA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -1.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -0.7 (-2.3) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.2 (-3.2) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.3 (-3.3) | 148.6 (-3.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -0.0 (-3.0) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NIA 70 – 68 IONA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IONA 71 – 53 NIA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IONA 65 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | NIA 75 – 73 IONA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | IONA 71 – 59 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#265) | -0.8 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#248) | -0.37 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#257) | -0.22 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#252) | 0.494 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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