Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -12.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -12.2 (+9.2) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -11.1 (+8.1) | 142.4 (+2.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -12.3 (+9.3) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -12.2 (+9.2) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | SF 82 – 65 PORT |
| Jan 5, 2026 | SF 73 – 68 PORT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SF 81 – 72 PORT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SF 72 – 51 PORT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SF 76 – 64 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#243) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#217) | 2.19 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#217) | 3.06 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#229) | 0.600 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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