Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -115 SIU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -1.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.3 (-5.7) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -0.9 (-6.9) | 139.1 (+4.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.3 (-6.3) | 140.1 (+3.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -0.1 (-6.1) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 61.6 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | 1.9 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#245) | -0.45 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#224) | -0.34 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#240) | 0.456 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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