Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -8.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -7.3 (+8.7) | 133.7 (-7.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -7.0 (+9.0) | 135.5 (-9.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -6.7 (+9.3) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -6.9 (+9.1) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GB 64 – 56 PFW |
| Feb 13, 2026 | GB 76 – 59 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2026 | GB 72 – 54 PFW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | PFW 89 – 74 GB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | PFW 83 – 67 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-2 | 4-9 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#261) | -10.4 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#255) | -3.07 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#266) | -3.52 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#256) | 0.381 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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