Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GB -105 PFW -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | GB -3.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GB -2.9 (+14.1) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GB -2.0 (+15.0) | 146.8 (-11.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GB -3.0 (+14.0) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GB -3.1 (+13.9) | 145.4 (-10.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GB 64 – 56 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2026 | GB 72 – 54 PFW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | PFW 89 – 74 GB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | PFW 83 – 67 GB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PFW 85 – 59 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#232) | -4.9 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#172) | -0.15 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#195) | -0.68 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#136) | 0.494 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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