Betting Lines
| Spread | GB -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GB -115 PFW -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +26 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | GB -1.0 (-27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GB -0.6 (-26.6) | 142.8 (+1.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GB -1.3 (-27.3) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GB -1.4 (-27.4) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GB -0.7 (-26.7) | 142.9 (+1.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GB 64 – 56 PFW |
| Feb 13, 2026 | GB 76 – 59 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2026 | GB 72 – 54 PFW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | PFW 89 – 74 GB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | PFW 83 – 67 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#194) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#170) | -0.35 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#181) | -0.29 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#143) | 0.472 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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