Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -395 GB +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +18 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -5.6 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -4.1 (-22.1) | 144.9 (-18.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -6.5 (-24.5) | 145.5 (-19.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.5 (-22.5) | 145.6 (-19.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -4.7 (-22.7) | 146.2 (-20.2) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GB 64 – 56 PFW |
| Feb 13, 2026 | GB 76 – 59 PFW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | PFW 89 – 74 GB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | PFW 83 – 67 GB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PFW 85 – 59 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#227) | -5.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#157) | -0.19 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#178) | -0.35 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#134) | 0.514 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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