Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +6 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -9.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.7 (-11.7) | 132.3 (-14.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.2 (-12.2) | 132.4 (-14.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -5.9 (-11.9) | 132.1 (-14.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -6.6 (-12.6) | 132.5 (-14.5) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | SIE 76 – 61 FAIR |
| Feb 28, 2026 | FAIR 72 – 58 SIE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SIE 85 – 77 FAIR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SIE 68 – 64 FAIR |
| Feb 25, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 64 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#174) | -6.8 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#221) | -0.46 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#219) | -0.96 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#191) | 0.481 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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