Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -4000 SIE +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -19.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -16.5 (+7.5) | 141.2 (+10.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -13.6 (+10.4) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -15.3 (+8.7) | 140.5 (+11.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -16.8 (+7.2) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | SIE 76 – 61 FAIR |
| Feb 28, 2026 | FAIR 72 – 58 SIE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SIE 85 – 77 FAIR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SIE 68 – 64 FAIR |
| Jan 6, 2024 | FAIR 93 – 69 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-4 | 2-12 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 60.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#169) | -16.7 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -2.48 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#183) | -3.25 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#156) | 0.405 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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