Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -0.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -0.5 (-13.5) | 138.6 (+29.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.7 (-14.7) | 138.7 (+29.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.8 (-14.8) | 139.4 (+28.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -0.1 (-13.9) | 140.4 (+27.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 5-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#225) | 0.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#161) | -0.02 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#185) | 0.10 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#189) | 0.508 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 27.6 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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