Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -1.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -1.2 (+5.8) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -1.0 (+6.0) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -0.8 (+6.2) | 142.8 (+4.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -1.0 (+6.0) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MAN 69 – 65 CAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CAN 70 – 64 MAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MAN 77 – 72 CAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CAN 82 – 70 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#286) | -5.6 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#265) | -0.17 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#288) | -0.56 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#263) | 0.486 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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