Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +21 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | WEB -4.7 (-25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -4.7 (-25.7) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -4.8 (-25.8) | 147.8 (-12.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -4.5 (-25.5) | 148.3 (-13.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -4.8 (-25.8) | 150.1 (-15.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#130) | 0.5 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#93) | 0.57 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#98) | 0.66 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#107) | 0.527 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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