Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -2.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.4 (+6.6) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -1.8 (+5.2) | 141.8 (+9.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -1.8 (+5.2) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -2.1 (+4.9) | 142.8 (+8.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#212) | -1.1 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#228) | -0.65 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#227) | -0.67 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#232) | 0.469 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.