Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -218 INST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -5.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -4.3 (-3.3) | 143.9 (+7.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -4.8 (-3.8) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -4.5 (-3.5) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -5.4 (-4.4) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | INST 83 – 64 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#164) | -2.4 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#179) | -1.08 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#168) | -1.33 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#232) | 0.447 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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