Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -142 INST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -2.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -3.4 (-2.4) | 140.5 (-15.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -2.6 (-1.6) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.8 (-1.8) | 139.3 (-14.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -3.3 (-2.3) | 140.1 (-15.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | INST 83 – 64 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#159) | -2.2 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#158) | -1.07 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#154) | -1.24 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#212) | 0.443 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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