Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -120 INST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +3 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -3.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -1.1 (+1.9) | 159.6 (+33.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.6 (+0.4) | 160.7 (+32.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.3 (+0.7) | 162.1 (+30.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -3.7 (-0.7) | 159.5 (+33.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Feb 22, 2024 | INST 83 – 64 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#193) | -1.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#177) | -0.15 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#192) | -0.32 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#187) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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