Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | INST -210 VAL +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | INST -2.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -2.2 (+15.8) | 154.2 (-12.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -5.3 (+12.7) | 152.9 (-10.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.4 (+15.6) | 154.6 (-12.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.1 (+15.9) | 154.1 (-12.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | INST 83 – 64 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#229) | -3.3 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#203) | -0.68 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#210) | -0.99 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#199) | 0.455 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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