Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +900 INST -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +19 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -15.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -14.8 (-4.2) | 152.7 (-5.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -15.1 (-3.9) | 151.4 (-4.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -15.6 (-3.4) | 152.3 (-5.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -14.7 (-4.3) | 151.9 (-4.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 17-3 |
| Home | 6-11 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-13 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#289) | 12.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#306) | 2.16 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#286) | 2.43 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#291) | 0.584 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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