Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | INST -142 VAL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -0.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.1 (-3.9) | 142.3 (+5.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.3 (-3.7) | 143.5 (+4.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.7 (-4.7) | 140.3 (+7.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.2 (-4.2) | 142.4 (+5.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | INST 83 – 64 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#200) | 0.2 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#242) | -0.30 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#250) | -0.21 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#247) | 0.462 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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