Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +16 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -3.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.0 (+12.0) | 135.9 (-19.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -2.9 (+13.1) | 138.5 (-22.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -3.4 (+12.6) | 138.5 (-22.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -3.4 (+12.6) | 138.5 (-22.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#167) | -0.8 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#173) | -0.90 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#159) | -0.82 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#111) | 0.467 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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