Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +10 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -8.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.9 (-2.1) | 154.7 (+13.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -6.0 (-4.0) | 157.3 (+10.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -6.1 (-3.9) | 157.5 (+10.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -6.1 (-3.9) | 155.6 (+12.4) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 18-0 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-0 |
| Away | 6-7 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#254) | 7.1 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#208) | 1.66 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#221) | 1.77 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#205) | 0.587 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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