Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +19 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -7.2 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.8 (-13.2) | 144.0 (-21.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -7.4 (-11.6) | 145.4 (-22.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -7.5 (-11.5) | 146.1 (-23.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -8.1 (-10.9) | 144.5 (-21.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 0-19 | 14-3 |
| Home | 6-11 | 16-1 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L21 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | 9.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#220) | 4.00 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#202) | 4.15 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#236) | 0.656 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.