Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.2 (+4.2) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.2 (+2.8) | 135.8 (-2.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.1 (+3.1) | 136.6 (-3.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.0 (+3.0) | 134.9 (-1.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 10-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#217) | 0.6 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#211) | -0.07 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#220) | 0.02 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#241) | 0.478 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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