Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +15 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | USU -9.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -10.0 (+5.0) | 139.6 (+25.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -9.2 (+5.8) | 140.4 (+24.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -9.1 (+5.9) | 140.6 (+24.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -8.8 (+6.2) | 140.6 (+24.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#43) | 3.9 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#71) | 0.91 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#55) | 1.35 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#57) | 0.539 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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