Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -14.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -11.4 (-2.4) | 135.0 (+10.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -11.9 (-2.9) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -12.2 (-3.2) | 137.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -12.5 (-3.5) | 136.0 (+9.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 12-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#70) | -2.9 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#61) | 0.33 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#74) | 0.16 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#31) | 0.515 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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