Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.2 (+10.8) | 123.9 (+5.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.5 (+12.5) | 129.8 (-0.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.5 (+12.5) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.3 (+13.3) | 125.9 (+3.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#94) | 7.6 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#110) | 1.94 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#101) | 2.40 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#109) | 0.591 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.