Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -250 MIA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +22 | 98 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -2.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -3.0 (+19.0) | 124.4 (-26.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.4 (+18.6) | 119.8 (-21.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.5 (+18.5) | 126.5 (-28.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -3.6 (+18.4) | 128.4 (-30.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UVA 74 – 71 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#67) | 10.1 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#28) | 1.57 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#56) | 1.95 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#28) | 0.558 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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