Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -175 MIA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -2.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.6 (+20.4) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.5 (+19.5) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.9 (+20.1) | 143.2 (+2.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.1 (+19.9) | 144.4 (+1.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UVA 74 – 71 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#21) | 16.1 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#10) | 2.80 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#11) | 3.61 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#15) | 0.578 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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