Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -3.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -2.9 (-5.9) | 130.0 (+15.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.2 (-7.2) | 131.2 (+13.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.0 (-7.0) | 131.7 (+13.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.5 (-6.5) | 131.8 (+13.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 10-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#71) | 6.9 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#39) | 1.26 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#44) | 1.48 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#41) | 0.549 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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