Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +138 UVA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -0.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.7 (+1.3) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.5 (+1.5) | 133.5 (-3.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -0.6 (+1.4) | 138.9 (-8.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.1 (+0.9) | 140.2 (-10.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UVA 74 – 71 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#69) | 12.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#16) | 3.26 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#28) | 4.17 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#40) | 0.619 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 36.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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