Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -360 MIA +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -6.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.8 (-4.8) | 141.6 (+27.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -7.4 (-4.4) | 142.3 (+26.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.7 (-3.7) | 142.6 (+26.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.4 (-3.4) | 143.2 (+25.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UVA 74 – 71 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#23) | 14.9 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#14) | 2.68 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#16) | 3.40 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#24) | 0.575 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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