Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -135 UVA +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -0.7 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.5 (-8.5) | 136.0 (+17.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.2 (-10.8) | 136.9 (+16.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.1 (-8.9) | 137.9 (+15.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.1 (-8.9) | 138.7 (+14.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UVA 74 – 71 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 10-7 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#207) | 1.8 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#319) | 0.38 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#287) | 0.52 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#290) | 0.510 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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