Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -7.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -4.1 (+1.9) | 135.3 (+18.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -3.6 (+2.4) | 135.4 (+18.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -3.8 (+2.2) | 135.9 (+18.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -3.9 (+2.1) | 135.6 (+18.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#199) | -5.7 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#225) | -0.01 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#232) | -0.43 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#194) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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