Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.0 (+5.0) | 140.4 (-10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.3 (+5.7) | 140.9 (-10.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -4.7 (+5.3) | 140.4 (-10.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.1 (+4.9) | 139.3 (-9.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PFW 100 – 82 MILW |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MILW 77 – 55 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2025 | PFW 81 – 79 MILW |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PFW 78 – 73 MILW |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MILW 96 – 88 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 8-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#265) | -9.1 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#260) | -2.27 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#271) | -2.60 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#255) | 0.385 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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