Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +10 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -11.2 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.6 (+19.6) | 153.9 (+22.1) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -9.5 (+19.5) | 155.5 (+20.5) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -9.9 (+19.9) | 156.3 (+19.7) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.3 (+21.3) | 156.1 (+19.9) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#270) | 8.6 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#221) | 1.90 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#229) | 2.27 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#222) | 0.593 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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