Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -600 BALL +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -12.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -11.2 (-6.2) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -9.6 (-4.6) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.7 (-5.7) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.2 (-6.2) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
| Jan 4, 2023 | BALL 90 – 83 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#131) | -6.7 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#107) | -1.13 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#137) | -1.46 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#112) | 0.424 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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