Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -350 BALL +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +7 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -5.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.0 (-10.0) | 156.6 (+16.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.6 (-11.6) | 156.6 (+16.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.4 (-9.4) | 157.1 (+15.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.4 (-10.4) | 158.3 (+14.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#105) | 2.8 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#106) | 0.54 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#103) | 0.69 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#92) | 0.523 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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