Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -380 BALL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -12.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.7 (+7.3) | 141.3 (-13.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.9 (+8.1) | 140.7 (-12.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.2 (+7.8) | 141.8 (-13.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.3 (+7.7) | 141.2 (-13.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
| Jan 4, 2023 | BALL 90 – 83 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#156) | -9.1 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#150) | -1.70 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#141) | -2.31 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#100) | 0.407 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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