Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +163 TOL -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -2.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.4 (-2.6) | 159.9 (+8.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.3 (-3.7) | 157.6 (+10.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.4 (-3.6) | 160.8 (+7.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.4 (-2.6) | 164.0 (+4.0) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Jan 4, 2023 | BALL 90 – 83 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | 7.0 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#143) | 1.26 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#154) | 1.34 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#141) | 0.570 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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