Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -115 TOL -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +18 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -2.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -0.9 (-18.9) | 150.8 (+17.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.1 (-17.9) | 150.7 (+17.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -1.7 (-19.7) | 149.0 (+19.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -1.7 (-19.7) | 151.3 (+16.7) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
| Jan 4, 2023 | BALL 90 – 83 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#237) | -2.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#287) | 0.28 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#294) | -0.08 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#300) | 0.520 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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