Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -360 BALL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.9 (-5.9) | 152.6 (-19.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.3 (-4.3) | 154.2 (-21.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.6 (-4.6) | 156.6 (-23.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.0 (-5.0) | 156.6 (-23.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
| Jan 4, 2023 | BALL 90 – 83 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#214) | -6.2 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#137) | -1.05 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#171) | -1.62 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#106) | 0.448 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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