Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -5.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -3.7 (-11.7) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -3.9 (-11.9) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.7 (-11.7) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -3.7 (-11.7) | 141.4 (-11.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#294) | -9.2 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#302) | -1.97 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#302) | -2.47 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#300) | 0.383 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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