Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | LAF -180 BUCK +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -5.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.9 (-1.9) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -4.1 (-2.1) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -4.1 (-2.1) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -4.2 (-2.2) | 143.3 (+2.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LAF 81 – 79 BUCK |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BUCK 75 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#319) | -12.1 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#322) | -2.17 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#322) | -2.80 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#305) | 0.385 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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