Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -198 BUCK +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -5.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.9 (-0.9) | 137.7 (+22.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.1 (-0.1) | 138.1 (+21.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.5 (-1.5) | 136.6 (+23.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.2 (-1.2) | 137.8 (+22.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BUCK 75 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LAF 75 – 72 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#315) | -12.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#349) | -2.11 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#342) | -2.53 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#353) | 0.413 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.