Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LAF +105 BUCK -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | BUCK -0.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -1.1 (-4.9) | 138.8 (+5.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -0.1 (-5.9) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -0.3 (-5.7) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.2 (-5.8) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LAF 81 – 79 BUCK |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LAF 75 – 72 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#289) | -4.5 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#308) | -0.92 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#292) | -1.04 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#310) | 0.466 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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