Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -6.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -3.5 (+12.5) | 140.0 (+25.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -5.1 (+14.1) | 137.7 (+27.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -4.4 (+13.4) | 138.3 (+26.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -4.4 (+13.4) | 139.0 (+26.0) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#257) | 4.3 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#257) | 1.61 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#274) | 1.82 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#271) | 0.586 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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