Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
G.B. Hodge Center · February 5, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread CAM -2.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UPST win
Actual CAM +9 151 Lost
Massey UPST -0.1 (-9.1) — —
Massey Totals — 138.3 (+12.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 60% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 71% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UPST -2.4 (-11.4) 139.7 (+11.3) 59% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ CAM -0.1 (-8.9) 138.5 (+12.5) 45% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UPST -0.8 (-9.8) 138.2 (+12.8) 46% ✓
Baseline ML UPST -1.4 (-10.4) 140.3 (+10.7) 57% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 2, 2023 CAM 78 – 66 UPST
Jan 12, 2023 CAM 78 – 63 UPST
Feb 13, 2021 CAM 64 – 49 UPST
Feb 12, 2021 CAM 72 – 71 UPST

Game Analysis

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