Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +2 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -13.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -11.4 (-13.4) | 131.8 (-17.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -13.3 (-15.3) | 138.7 (-24.7) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -12.5 (-14.5) | 138.0 (-24.0) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -12.2 (-14.2) | 133.9 (-19.9) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#62) | -1.9 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#80) | 0.19 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#87) | 0.12 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#56) | 0.507 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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