Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -0.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.1 (-7.9) | 130.9 (+0.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -0.1 (-9.1) | 131.7 (-0.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.3 (-8.7) | 132.4 (-1.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.7 (-8.3) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#229) | 0.0 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#196) | 0.66 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#189) | 0.77 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#210) | 0.553 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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