Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -11.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -8.1 (+8.9) | 132.4 (-3.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -10.3 (+6.7) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -11.6 (+5.4) | 134.8 (-5.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -10.9 (+6.1) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#59) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#72) | 0.72 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#66) | 0.91 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#87) | 0.544 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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